Slow Start To Slow Week

The US dollar opened in New York with very little change compared to Friday’s close. The week started off slow helped by Marine Day holiday’s in Japan.

Better than expected China GDP and Retail Sales data underpinned the commodity bloc currencies but despite the upside surprises, it wasn’t enough to ignite a fresh rally.

AUDUSD bounced within a 0.7804-34 range. NZDUSD peaked at 0.7359 early and dropped to 0.7318

USDJPY see-sawed inside a 112.41-112.76 range The Commitment of Traders report, released on Friday, showed short yen positions at their highest levels in two years, which may be acting as a drag on USDJPY gains.

The US dollar consolidation continued in Europe.  Sterling did not extend Friday’s gains but remained firm in a 1.3069-1.3111 range.  Theresa May’s Tory party appears to have some dissent. A leaked memo suggests France favours a “hard” Brexit.

EURUSD ignored Eurozone inflation data as the reports were “as expected.” Contradictory comments from various European Central Bank officials in the past few weeks suggests that EURUSD will stay within a narrow range, ahead of the meeting on Thursday.

 

Oil prices are firm.  WTI is trading at $46.57/b, close to the middle of its overnight, $46.41-$46.86/barrel range. The weekly Baker-Hughs rig count report released at the end of the day on Friday, showed a mere three rig increase.  Traders took that to mean that US drilling was slowing.

The Canadian dollar managed to hang on to most of Friday’s gains. USDCAD is trading near the low at 1.2662, undermined by diverging Bank of Canada and US Fed interest rate trajectories and the recent oil price rally.

There isn’t any US or Canada economic data of note, ensuring that today’s FX session will be just as quiet as the overnight markets.

 

FX Ranges for major currency pairs

Close Open High Low
14-Jul-17 17-Jul-17
EURUSD 1.1466 1.1458 1.1474 1.1435
USDJPY 113.22 112.47 112.76 112.41
GBPUSD 112.5000 1.3074 1.3111 1.3069
USDCHF 0.9633 0.9633 0.9657 0.9630
AUDUSD 0.7825 0.7817 0.7834 0.7804
NZDUSD 0.7345 0.7325 0.7241 0.7218
USDCAD 1.2650 1.2657 1.2671 1.2642
GOLD 1228.81 1230.10 1232.19 1228.61
WTI 46.53 46.65 46.86 46.41

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