The Canadian dollar has a headache. It’s not a migraine; it is a stress headache triggered by the ongoing NAFTA negotiations. President Trump campaigned on ‘tearing up NAFTA and he is in the process of fulfilling that promise under the guise of renegotiation. It is evident that the American negotiating tactic is to make outrageous demands, knowing that they will
Read moreThe Canadian dollar has been sliding since the middle of September after Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz downplayed risks for a third rate increase in 2017. The Canadian dollar was also undermined by a repricing of a US Federal Reserve rate hike in December. The odds for that move rose from 40% on September 18 to 91.7% by October
Read moreThe Canadian dollar has been under pressure since the middle of September. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz made things worse last week, when he told markets that rate hikes were data dependent and he intended to proceed cautiously. Suddenly, the “sure thing” October rate hike became a “no-chance.” rate move and the Canadian dollar sank. Domestic issues weren’t the
Read moreThe Canadian dollar is under pressure, and the pressure is mostly from external forces. The Canadian dollar peaked early in September and steadily retreated ever since. The Bank of Canada surprised many economists when they raised interest rates on September 6, for the second time in 2017. Since then a confluence of events have stymied additional Canadian dollar gains including
Read moreThe Canadian Dollar retreated overnight, along with the rest of the majors due to a perceived easing of tension between North Korea and the United States. Only the Australian dollar managed to show a gain compared to Tuesday’s close and that gain was modest. USDCAD is consolidating in a 1.2450-1.2550 range. Traders are torn between expectations of further Bank of
Read moreThe Canadian Dollar is rising, supported by broad US dollar weakness, USDCAD rallied yesterday afternoon and finished the day looking like it would extend the gains in overseas markets. That view was blown out of the sky, literally, when North Korea launched another missile. This missile passed over Northern Japan and splashed into the Pacific Ocean. It spooked traders and
Read moreThe Canadian dollar broke above the 85 cent level against the US dollar on Friday, and hasn’t looked back. The Canadian dollar strength is because of broad US dollar weakness which was exacerbated on Friday. FX markets had hoped that Fed Chair Janet Yellen would use her speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, to provide some clarity on the outlook
Read moreThe Canadian dollar has caught a bid. It is in demand, despite President Trump’s comment that he thinks the deal needs to be terminated. It is in demand despite broad (but limited) US dollar demand against the major currencies in overnight trading. It is in demand because of the Bank of Canada’s hawkish monetary policy stance. The Bank of Canada
Read morePresident Donald Trump undermined the Canadian dollar in overnight trading. At a rally in Wyoming, the President repeated his disdain for the North American Free Trade Agreement, suggesting that the United States could not make a new deal without terminating the old agreement first. USDCAD rose to 1.2596, in part because of the Trump comments, fully reversing yesterday’s USDCAD losses
Read moreThe Canadian dollar not only failed to extend gains overnight, but it also reversed direction and gave up ground as positions were adjusted ahead of this morning’s release of Retail Sales by Statistics Canada. The forecast is for June Retail Sales to rise 0.3%, down from the 0.6% recorded in May. Retails Sales, excluding autos, is expected to be flat.
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